New Rasmussen Poll Shows Chafee Leading Governor’s Race

A new Rasmussen poll shows some distinct results from two other recent polls on the Rhode Island’s governor race: a Brown University poll and a WPRI / Fleming poll.  Let’s compare them (h/t RIFuture).

Rasmussen Poll (February 25, 2010)

  • Chafee: 37%; Caprio: 27%; Robitaille: 19%; Not Sure: 17%
  • Chafee: 38%; Lynch: 24%; Robitaille: 22%; Not Sure: 16%

Brown University Poll (February 9-12, 2010)

  • Chafee: 33.8%; Caprio: 28.3%; Robitaille: 12.1%; Don’t Know: 25.8%
  • Chafee: 32.9%; Lynch: 17.7%; Robitaille: 13.7%; Don’t Know: 35.6%

WPRI Poll (January 27-31, 2010)

  • Chafee = 31%; Caprio = 30%; Robitaille = 13%; Not sure / Refused = 25%
  • Chafee = 34%; Lynch = 23%; Robitaille = 18%; Not sure / Refused = 25%

Obviously, the different voters targeted in these polls and how the pollsters communicated with these voters – as well as the time gap – contributes to the difference in the polling numbers.  See this story by prominent polling analyst Nate Silver about Rasmussen polling bias for example.  But some trends are clear.

  • Chafee has a small lead in the general election regardless of his Democratic opponent.  It will be interesting to see if the entrance of Ken Block as the Moderate Party candidate pulls any support away from Chafee (Block wasn’t included in any of the above polls).
  • Caprio has a small lead in the Democratic Primary and also fares better against Chafee than does Lynch.  With Caprio’s significant fundraising advantage and the recent departure of Lynch’s campaign manager, it will be interesting to see if Lynch can turn his campaign ship around.

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